Archives: June 2010

Bank of America (BAC: 15.81 -0.50%) is starting to forgive principal when modifying underwater mortgages eligible for the National Homeownership Retention Program (NHRP).

BofA servicers will forgive principal for homeowners who owe “considerably more” on their mortgage than the current value of the home while being considered for the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). BofA announced NHRP in March 2010.

The bank will attempt a principal reduction as the first step in the servicer waterfall to reach the 31% debt-to-income ratio target – the amount of the borrower monthly income that goes toward the mortgage. Loans eligible for the NHRP include subprime, pay-option adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) and prime-quality two-year hybrid ARMs originated by Countrywide before Jan. 1, 2009. The amount of principal owed must exceed the property value by 20%, and the loan must be delinquent by 60 or more days.

Through the five-year NHRP, BofA sets up an interest-free forbearance account for the amount of principal owed above the current value of the home. For instance, if the borrower owes $250,000 on a home worth $200,000 and qualifies for the program, BofA will set up a separate account of $50,000 that will sit alone without collecting interest while the borrower makes payments on the $200,000 at the current market interest rate. There are no required payments on the $50,000 non-interest bearing mortgage account.

For the first three years of the NHRP, BofA reduces the separate account – the $50,000 in the example above – by 20% each year if the borrower remains current. Meaning after three years, $30,000 would be forgiven in the example. If, by then, house prices have gone up and the borrower is once again at a 100% loan-to-value ratio, BofA will no longer reduce the principal. If the borrower remains above 100% LTV, BofA will continue reducing payments for an additional two years.

BofA will not reduce the principal on the non-interest bearing mortgage account if the sum of both mortgages achieves 100% LTV.

“We believe the loss [through NHRP] will be smaller compared to foreclosure,” said Jack Schakett, credit loss mitigation executive for BofA Home Loans.

The Treasury Department announced a similar earned principal forgiveness program for HAMP that will go into effect later in the year. But it ends after three years, opposed to the five-year possibility offered by BofA. Schakett said about 80% of the borrowers in the NHRP will not need to receive principal forgiveness after three years.

Schakett added that of the BofA borrowers currently moving through the HAMP process, 45% had an LTV of more than 120%.

“Our tests have shown that many homeowners who are severely underwater on their mortgages will respond positively to a modification offer that includes reduction of their principal balance, increasing the rates of acceptance of HAMP trial modification offers, conversion to permanent modifications and long-term success of the homeowner,” Schakett said.

Schakett said the amount of borrowers who have strategically defaulted is more than they’ve ever experienced before. To meet the demand for modifications, BofA more than doubled its staff in the loss-mitigation department to reach out to these borrowers. The bank also opened the first of three “outreach” centers in Nevada, joining similar centers in California and Florida.

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UNDERWATER HOMEOWNERS AND THE ECONOMY
In a recent report, Mustafa Akcay, of Moody’s Economy.com masterfully outlined the delicate relation between underwater homeowners and the recovery of the US economy.
Moody’s expect about 4 million homeowners to enter foreclosure in 2010 with failed loan modifications further depressing home prices. This drives their call for additional housing rescue programs.
Here are their four reasons why underwater homeowners pose a risk to the US recovery:
1. Negative equity has become an important driver to foreclosures.

2. The number of underwater homeowners, though declining, is still critically high.

3. The Loss of home equity undermines consumer spending and depresses house prices.

4. The US economic expansion will remain fragile as long as the housing market remains vulnerable.

Moody’s Economy.com estimates:
� 14.9 million homeowners, one-third of all mortgage borrowers, owed more than the market value of their homes at the end of 2009.

� This is 1.2 million lower than the peak in Q2 2009.

� More than 9 million homeowners� loan-to-value was above 120% by the end of last year.

� Mortgage outstanding in negative equity at the end of 2009 totaled $2.5 trillion nationwide.

� More than of mortgages outstanding might be at risk of defaulting.

� Total amount of negative equity was $900 billion at the end of last year.

� States with once-hot housing markets have the largest volume of negative equity.

� Underwater homeowners owe $254 billion in negative equity in California and $88 billion in Florida.

� In Nevada, 80% of mortgage loans were under water at the end of 2009, with Arizona and California following close behind.

� By the end of 2009 1.6 million homeowners in California had loan-to-value ratios above 120%, followed by Florida with 1.1 million and Michigan with 560,000.

� Michigan is the only hard hit state that did not experience a housing bubble, job losses brought values down.

Mustafa Akcay summarizes, “Home prices will remain depressed at least until 2012, with some tentative decline in the second half of 2010 and in 2011, keeping the number of negative equity homeowners high for some time.”
“The downside risk for strategic defaults is that lenders more aggressively seek repayment. In that case, underwater borrowers who are able to service their mortgage debt would be discouraged from defaulting, and strategic defaults would constitute a smaller share of all foreclosures.�”

Key Economic Reports Released This Week

RELEASE
DATE
ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
RELEASED
BY
CONSENSUS Wt. INFLUENCE ON
INTEREST RATES
Tue 06/01
10:00 am et
ISM (NAPM) Mfg
for May ‘10
National Association of Purchasing Mgt. 60.0%
** �If above consensus
�If below consensus
Tue 06/01
10:00 am et
Construction Spending
for April ‘10
Bureau of the Census
Dept. of Commerce
-0.8%
** �If above consensus
�If below consensus
Wed 06/02
7:00 am et
MBA Mtg Apps Survey
for week ending 05/28
Mortgage Bankers Association of America N/A
* Undetermined
Wed 06/02
10:00 am et
Pending Home Sales
for April ‘10
National Association
of Realtors
8.0%
** If above consensus
If below consensus
Wed 06/02
Motor Vehicle Sales
for May ‘10
Automobile Manufacturers Vechiles 11.4M
** Undetermined
Thu 06/03
8:15 am et
ADP Employment Report
for May ‘10
Automatic Data Proc &
Macroeconomic Advisors
100K
** If above consensus
If below consensus
Thu 06/03
8:30 am et
Jobless Claims
for week ending 05/29
Bur. of Labor Statistics
Department of Labor
445K
* �If above consensus
�If below consensus
Thu 06/03
8:30 am et
Productivity & Costs
Q1 ‘10 revised
Labor Department Prod 4.2%
Costs -2.2%
** �If above consensus
�If below consensus
Thu 06/03
10:00 am et
Factory Orders
for April ‘10
Bureau of the Census
Dept. of Commerce
1.5%
* �If above consensus
�If below consensus
Thu 06/03
10:00 am et
ISM Index (Non-Mfg)
for May ‘10
National Association of Purchasing Mgt. 56.0%
** �If above consensus
�If below consensus
Fri 06/04
8:30 am et
Employment Situation
for May ‘10
Bur. of Labor Statistics
Department of Labor
Payrolls 600k
Umemp 9.8%
**** �If above consensus
�If below consensus